The United States Air Force (USAF) is facing a serious fighter pilot shortage, which threatens its ability to maintain combat readiness against powerful adversaries like China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF). A recent policy paper by the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies highlights this crisis and suggests that reinvesting in the USAF Reserve and Air National Guard is the best way to address the issue. The report, authored by former USAF F-16 pilot Heather R. “Lucky” Penney, warns that this pilot gap is not just a staffing issue but a national security concern.
The USAF Fighter Pilot Shortage
According to the policy paper, the USAF currently has a shortage of 1,150 fighter pilots, making it difficult to maintain a “fight tonight” force capable of sustaining combat operations. This shortage has persisted for over 20 years, growing worse as aircraft numbers and pilot inventories decline.
Penney explains that this shortage is not just affecting frontline combat operations. The lack of experienced fighter pilots also impacts crucial areas such as:
- Headquarters staffing
- Campaign planning
- Acquisition and development of new aircraft
- Training and mentorship of new pilots
Without immediate action, the USAF risks becoming unprepared for conflicts against peer competitors like China.
Can Autonomous Systems Replace Human Pilots?
With advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) and autonomous systems like Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA), some have suggested that AI-driven jets could fill the pilot gap. However, Penney strongly disagrees, stating that AI lacks the critical decision-making abilities of human pilots. She argues that:
- AI struggles with unpredictable, complex situations that human pilots can quickly assess and respond to.
- Humans apply experience and instinct in ways AI cannot replicate.
- Autonomous systems should complement human pilots, not replace them.
Instead of relying on AI to fix the pilot shortage, Penney believes the USAF should focus on increasing the number of trained fighter pilots while using AI as a support tool.
Strengthening the USAF Reserve and Air National Guard
One of Penney’s key recommendations is to expand and invest in the USAF Reserve Component, which includes the Air National Guard and the Air Force Reserve. These units provide critical support during times of war and emergency but are currently at risk due to aging aircraft and insufficient funding.
Why the Reserve Component Matters
- The USAF has the smallest combat aircraft fleet in its history, with only 160 bombers and just over 2,000 fighter jets.
- Many fighter jets are between 30 to 50 years old, leading to high maintenance costs and reduced availability.
- Reserve squadrons play a crucial role in retaining experienced pilots who might otherwise leave the military.
Penney highlights that replacing aging aircraft one-for-one is essential to maintaining combat effectiveness. Without proper investment, many Reserve and Air National Guard squadrons could be lost, further weakening the USAF’s ability to respond to global threats.
Rebuilding the Fighter Fleet: What Can Be Done?
Faster F-35 Acquisitions
Penney calls for an increase in F-35 purchases, advocating for at least 74 jets per year. This will help modernize the fleet and reduce the average age of USAF aircraft. The F-35 is the most advanced fighter jet available, featuring cutting-edge sensors and combat capabilities.
Exploring the Super Hornet Option
Another potential solution is equipping USAF Reserve and Air National Guard squadrons with Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornets. These jets, currently used by the U.S. Navy, offer strong air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities and could help fill the gap left by aging USAF fighter jets.
Improving Pilot Training and Retention
- Increase simulator training to keep pilots prepared without putting extra strain on aging aircraft.
- Fully fund maintenance budgets to keep existing fighter jets operational.
- Expand the number of aircraft per squadron from 18 to 24 to increase pilot availability.
The Urgent Need for USAF Investment
The USAF’s fighter pilot shortage is a major threat to national security. If not addressed, it could leave the U.S. vulnerable in a future conflict. Heather “Lucky” Penney’s policy paper makes it clear that the best way forward is to invest in the Reserve Component, modernize the aircraft fleet, and improve pilot retention strategies.
History has shown that air forces relying on a small, elite pilot corps cannot sustain prolonged conflicts. To avoid the mistakes of past wars, the USAF must take action now—before it’s too late.
