Ryanair, Europe’s largest low-cost carrier, is facing continued Boeing 737 MAX delivery delays, forcing it to lower its FY26 traffic guidance by 4 million passengers. Despite this challenge, the airline reported strong financial results for Q3 FY25, with a €149 million ($156.8 million) profit, a significant jump from €15 million ($15.7 million) last year. However, Ryanair remains cautious about future growth due to uncertainties surrounding aircraft deliveries, taxation policies, and market constraints.
Ryanair’s Strong Q3 FY25 Performance
Ryanair’s financial results for Q3 FY25 show a strong recovery compared to the previous year. The airline’s revenue increased by 10% YoY, reaching €2.96 billion ($3.11 billion), while operating costs rose by 8% to €2.93 billion ($3 billion).
Key Financial Highlights
- Profit after tax: €149 million ($156.8 million)
- Revenue: €2.96 billion ($3.11 billion), up 10% YoY
- Operating costs: €2.93 billion ($3 billion), up 8% YoY
- Load factor: Maintained at 92%
- Passenger traffic: 44.9 million passengers, up 9% YoY
Michael O’Leary, Ryanair’s CEO, attributed the profit surge to resolving past disputes with online travel agencies (OTAs), which had negatively impacted revenues in November and December 2023.
“We have now fixed the OTA dispute, and therefore, this year’s Q3 is a more normal figure,” O’Leary stated.
For the first nine months of FY25, Ryanair reported a €1.94 billion ($2 billion) profit, with 160.2 million passengers, a 9% YoY increase.
Boeing 737 MAX Delivery Delays Impact Growth
Despite its positive financial performance, Ryanair continues to struggle with Boeing’s aircraft delivery delays, affecting its fleet expansion and passenger targets.
Current Fleet Status
- As of December 31, 2024:
- 737 MAX 8-200 aircraft: 172 aircraft
- Total fleet size: 609 aircraft
- Compared to H1 FY25:
- 170 737 MAX 8-200 aircraft (only two new deliveries in Q3 FY25)
The delays stem from Boeing’s machinist strike (September–November 2024) and its efforts to prioritize safety and quality in aircraft production. Although Boeing resumed 737 MAX production in December 2024, further delays remain a significant risk for Ryanair.
Efforts to Accelerate Deliveries
Ryanair’s leadership team visited Boeing’s facilities in Seattle in January 2025 to push for faster aircraft deliveries. However, the airline acknowledges that uncertainties remain:
“While we continue to work with Boeing leadership to accelerate aircraft deliveries ahead of peak summer 2025, the risk of further delivery delays remains high.”
These delays have already forced Ryanair to adjust its FY26 passenger forecast, lowering expectations from 210 million to 206 million passengers.
Ryanair’s Strategy: Seeking Tax Cuts and Market Growth
To offset aircraft delivery delays, Ryanair is focusing on reallocating capacity to regions and airports that offer tax reductions or incentives for traffic growth.
Key Market Expansion Areas
- Sweden, Hungary, and parts of Italy have reduced or eliminated aviation taxes, making them attractive markets.
- Ryanair plans to expand operations in these regions to maximize growth despite Boeing’s delays.
Additionally, European short-haul capacity remains constrained due to:
- Airbus operators dealing with Pratt & Whitney engine issues
- Delivery backlogs affecting both Airbus and Boeing
- Airline consolidation, such as Lufthansa’s takeover of ITA Airways (Italy) and the expected sale of TAP Air Portugal
Despite these challenges, Ryanair’s FY25 target of 200 million passengers remains intact.
Cost Management and Profitability Outlook
Ryanair remains cost-competitive and expects flat unit costs for the full year.
Factors Supporting Profitability
- Fuel hedge savings
- Higher interest income
- Compensation from Boeing for delivery delays
However, cost inflation remains a concern, including:
- Higher employee salaries
- Fleet inefficiencies due to late aircraft deliveries
Despite these factors, Ryanair remains confident in its ability to maintain a cost advantage over competitors.
FY25 Profit Guidance and Risks
Ryanair expects its FY25 profit after tax (PAT) to be between:
- €1.55 billion ($1.63 billion) to €1.61 billion ($1.69 billion)
However, this guidance remains subject to external risks, including:
- Ongoing Boeing delivery delays
- Geopolitical risks, such as wars in Ukraine and the Middle East
- European air traffic control (ATC) staffing shortages
While Q3 fares showed improvement, Q4 performance may be weaker due to:
- No early Easter boost this year, making YoY comparisons difficult.
Ryanair’s strong financial performance in Q3 FY25 highlights its ability to navigate industry challenges, but Boeing’s aircraft delivery delays continue to impact its long-term growth plans. The airline remains resilient, adjusting its FY26 passenger target and focusing on market expansion in tax-friendly regions. Despite uncertainties surrounding Boeing, European air traffic control, and geopolitical risks, Ryanair maintains a strong cost advantage and expects stable profitability in FY25.
