As Q1 2025 unfolds, US airlines are navigating a changing market, with a notable shift towards premium cabins and fluctuating seat capacities. While some airlines have reduced capacity to optimize operations, others are expanding aggressively. Let’s take a closer look at how major US-based carriers are adapting in the first quarter of the year.
Capacity Adjustments Among US Airlines
Declining Seat Capacity for Some Airlines
According to data from OAG, four of the 13 major US airlines have scheduled fewer seats in Q1 2025 compared to 2024. The carriers experiencing a decline include:
- Southwest Airlines (-4.4%)
- JetBlue Airways (-4.1%)
- Spirit Airlines (-14.9%) (Currently in Chapter 11 bankruptcy proceedings)
- Sun Country Airlines (-11.5%)
These reductions align with industry trends, as low-cost carriers focus on optimizing networks and responding to shifting passenger demands.
Additionally, Sun Country Airlines, a leisure-focused carrier based at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport (MSP), has been expanding its cargo operations with Amazon. In June 2024, the airline extended its agreement with Amazon through 2030 and plans to introduce eight converted Boeing 737-800 freighters in 2025, with the first entering service in Q1 2025.
Airlines Expanding Capacity in Q1 2025
While some airlines have reduced seat availability, others are capitalizing on new opportunities.
Leading the capacity growth in Q1 2025 are:
✅ Delta Air Lines: +3.7%
✅ United Airlines: +5.7%
✅ Frontier Airlines: +10%
✅ Allegiant Air: +14%
✅ Avelo Airlines: +19.5%
✅ Breeze Airways: +53.1%
Notably, Breeze Airways has expanded at an exceptional rate, increasing its capacity by over 50% YoY. Meanwhile, Avelo Airlines has taken an experimental approach, launching 14 new airport markets while discontinuing service in 11 others.
According to OAG, these shifts highlight the competitive nature of the market, as airlines continually adjust routes to find the most profitable opportunities.
Major Airlines Ranking in Q1 2025
Despite the fluctuations, American Airlines remains the largest US airline in Q1 2025, with over 60.2 million seats available.
Key Ranking Changes:
- Alaska Airlines has surpassed Spirit Airlines in terms of capacity.
- Breeze Airways has overtaken Sun Country Airlines.
- The Alaska Airlines-Hawaiian Airlines merger was completed in September 2024, but both airlines still operate under separate air operator certificates (AOCs) for now.
Financial Performance and Profitability
Delta Air Lines Leads with Strong Financial Results
Among the major airlines, Delta Air Lines is the only carrier to have released its Q4 2024 and full-year 2024 financial results so far. The airline reported:
💰 Net Profit: $3.4 billion (non-adjusted)
📈 Total Revenue: $61.6 billion
📊 Expected Q1 2025 Revenue Growth: 7% to 9% YoY
According to Delta President Glen Hauenstein, revenue growth in Q1 2025 will be driven by expanding capacity and strong unit revenues.
Other Airlines’ Financial Expectations
- Southwest Airlines expects strong revenue trends to continue into 2025.
- American Airlines and JetBlue provided positive guidance in December 2024 but have yet to disclose Q4 and full-year 2024 results. They are set to announce earnings on January 23 and January 28, 2025, respectively.
Shifting Trends in US Aviation
As Q1 2025 progresses, the US airline industry is witnessing a shift toward premium travel demand, leading to varying capacity strategies. Low-cost carriers like Spirit Airlines and Sun Country are adjusting their networks, while growth-focused airlines like Delta, United, Frontier, and Breeze Airways are seizing new opportunities.
Financially, Delta Air Lines remains the strongest performer, with Southwest and American Airlines showing confidence in continued growth. The coming months will reveal whether capacity expansions lead to higher profitability or increased competition in an evolving market.
