US-Europe Air Travel Trends: Load Factors, Routes, and Airline Strategies
Air travel between the United States and Europe remains a critical segment of the global aviation industry. According to the US Department of Transportation, nearly 77 million round-trip passengers traveled between the two regions in the 12 months leading up to October 2024, accounting for 31% of all US international traffic. However, not all routes performed equally, with some struggling due to low load factors, overcapacity, and shifting market demands.
Understanding Load Factor and Its Impact on Airlines
What Is Load Factor?
Load factor refers to the percentage of available airline seats that are actually filled with paying passengers. It is a crucial metric for airlines, influencing ticket pricing, profitability, and overall route viability.
- Higher Load Factor (75-85%) – Generally indicates a well-balanced route with strong demand.
- Too High Load Factor (90%+) – Could suggest that fares are too low, attracting mainly budget travelers.
- Too Low Load Factor (Below 60%) – May indicate overcapacity, poor demand, or miscalculated pricing strategies.
The average load factor for US-Europe flights in the 12 months to October 2024 was 83%, a relatively strong performance. However, some specific routes struggled, leading to cancellations or adjustments by airlines.
Why Load Factors Matter in Airline Strategy
Airlines constantly adjust routes and capacity based on demand. If capacity grows faster than passenger traffic, load factors drop, making routes less profitable. Airlines may respond by:
- Reducing flight frequency (cutting winter schedules, for example)
- Switching aircraft to adjust seat capacity (e.g., Lufthansa replacing the Airbus A350 with the A380 on Munich-Denver to increase summer seating by 74%)
- Exiting underperforming routes (e.g., Azores Airlines discontinuing Terceira-Oakland and Funchal-Boston)
A high load factor isn’t always positive—routes packed with budget travelers may struggle to turn a profit if fares are too low. Airlines must balance passenger numbers with pricing strategies to maximize revenue.
Routes with the Lowest Load Factors in US-Europe Travel
Analysis of Low-Performing Routes (October 2024 Data)
Several transatlantic routes recorded load factors below 70%, with some dropping as low as 47%. The table below highlights the 10 lowest load factor routes, their airlines, and their current status:
| Load Factor | Route | Airline | Status/Comments |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47% | Terceira (Azores) – New York JFK | Azores Airlines | Continues to operate weekly, despite low performance. |
| 54% | Funchal (Madeira) – New York JFK | Azores Airlines | Route discontinued in Sept 2024; United will launch Newark-Funchal in June 2025. |
| 60% | Frankfurt – San Antonio | Condor | First-ever European long-haul route for San Antonio, launched in May 2024. Seasonal route. |
| 60% | Manchester – Houston Intercontinental | Singapore Airlines | Part of Singapore-Manchester-Houston service, set to end in March 2025. |
| 64% | Newark – Ponta Delgada | United Airlines | Overcapacity in the market as Azores Airlines also flies Ponta Delgada – New York JFK. |
| 65% | Funchal – Boston | Azores Airlines | Discontinued after just one season (June-Sept 2024). |
| 65% | Manchester – Las Vegas | Virgin Atlantic | Resumed in June 2024 after a five-year gap. |
| 68% | London Gatwick – Miami | Norse Atlantic | Launched in September 2023; recent months have seen improved performance. |
| 68% | Dublin – Miami | Aer Lingus | Winter seasonal route (Nov 2023 – March 2024); demand fluctuates. |
| 69% | Terceira – Oakland | Azores Airlines | Route discontinued in September 2024; TAP Air Portugal will start Lisbon-Terceira-San Francisco in June 2025. |
Key Takeaways from Low Load Factor Routes
1. Seasonal Demand Plays a Major Role
- Routes like Dublin-Miami (Aer Lingus) and Frankfurt-San Antonio (Condor) struggled due to low winter demand.
- Airlines often cut or reduce flights in winter to optimize profitability.
2. Overcapacity Can Hurt Profits
- United’s Newark-Ponta Delgada route (64%) suffered due to competition from Azores Airlines, leading to lower passenger numbers on both carriers.
- When multiple airlines serve the same niche market, passenger demand often doesn’t match total available seats.
3. New Routes Need Time to Develop
- Long-haul routes require significant investment and may take years to become profitable.
- Airlines today have less patience, expecting results within months rather than years.
4. Some Routes Are Being Replaced by Other Airlines
- United Airlines is taking over the discontinued Funchal-New York JFK route, launching Newark-Funchal in June 2025.
- TAP Air Portugal will replace Terceira-Oakland with a Lisbon-Terceira-San Francisco service in June 2025.
US-Europe air travel remains a vital sector, but load factor analysis shows that not all routes are equally successful. While the overall load factor was 83%, some specific routes struggled due to seasonal demand, overcapacity, and market competition.
Airlines continue to adjust their strategies by cutting underperforming routes, optimizing schedules, and replacing weaker connections with more profitable alternatives. With new airlines stepping in to replace discontinued routes, the transatlantic market will continue to evolve in 2025 and beyond.
